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Yahya Sinwar has so far survived eight months of Israeli’s brutal military campaign to kill him.?His longevity?is a personal victory for the Hamas leader – and increasingly appears to be grim vindication of his decision to seize the initiative in the generational Palestinian struggle with Israel?by?launching a bloody attack?on October 7 that would plunge Gaza’s two million residents into a predictable hell.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and his military responded?as expected?to Sinwar’s?onslaught?of terror?that killed more than 1,200?people and saw over 220 taken hostage, declaring war and vowing to destroy Hamas.
Predictably too, according to many regional diplomats,?Israel’s military campaign is?failing to deliver?on the dismantling of Hamas, even as the number of Palestinians killed soars past 36,000. While Hamas is people and structures, they argue, it is also an ideology.
Now?Sinwar?– who speaks fluent Hebrew and has a nuanced knowledge of Israeli politics – believes he still has the war’s initiative,?amid high-stakes bargaining with Israel for a ceasefire and hostage deal.
“We have the Israelis right where we want them,”?he is said to have told other Hamas leaders, in leaked messages reported by The Wall Street Journal. He appeared to justify the deaths of Palestinian civilians as a “necessary sacrifice” according to the messages.
If this were a conventional war, it would be easy to write Sinwar off as deluded; Israel has the upper hand by far in conventional weapons. But?the weapons’?devastating effectiveness is becoming?a liability?in this asymmetric conflict, and against the backdrop of a?tortured history?that?Sinwar?is?adroitly weaponizing against Israel.
Because of the enormous civilian casualties and suffering inflicted by Israel in its pursuit of Hamas, Netanyahu now faces a possible arrest warrant for war crimes from the ICC, the world’s top court?– just like?Sinwar.?And?the consequences for Netanyahu are far more serious than for Hamas’ leader, because Sinwar is already a renowned terrorist hiding in a tunnel with limited prospects and Netanyahu is a global leader whose world will dramatically shrink if the ICC issues warrants.
Netanyahu dismisses the ICC as anti-Semitic, but?that hasn’t neutralized the damage in the court of international opinion.?Meanwhile,?Sinwar?can sit back and cash in?on?the?international?anger?over?Palestinian suffering.
Wind in Sinwar’s sails
Earlier this year,?university campuses?across the United States and Europe?combusted in spontaneous protest over?the toll of Israel’s war on?civilians?in Gaza,?where humanitarians warn of a growing hunger crisis.
For the first time, a generation of Palestinian were able to witness what they’d always hoped for, a potent political?force?able to rival what they’ve always perceived as an over loud, over pervasive and over powerful lobby?for Israeli interests.
In any other year this may have been irrelevant, but Biden’s back is to the wall in the upcoming US presidential election. He?has pledged unwavering support to Israel and continues to send weapons to Israel’s military, but if he stays the course, Biden?risks losing vital votes in swing states from a new generation of left-leaning Democrats. He can’t ignore the protesters’ anger about Gaza’s plight.
This puts?wind in Sinwar’s political sails. His negotiating team?has?gotten?tougher:?first?appearing?to be on?the verge of compromise, then holding out for a permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. He also appears to have brought the reality of a Palestinian state closer too – a?political?coup following decades of stultifying inertia.
US regional allies, notably Saudi Arabia, have set an “irreversible” path to a two-state solution as part of their price for buy-in to help Gaza rebuild. And while Netanyahu’s far-right ministers predictably say no?to Palestinian statehood, some?Western?partners are?showing?they’re fed up?with Israeli intransigence.
In recent weeks, Ireland, Spain, Norway and Portugal, all frustrated Netanyahu won’t agree a peace deal, have?formally?recognized Palestinian?statehood.?The statements?mark a remarkable departure?from?their previously cautious approach to Netanyahu’s belligerence.
Israel?has lashed out?against the four?European nations, but this doesn’t sting Sinwar. He is able to hunker down deep below Gaza and relish the hell he has unleashed above and the repercussions he gambled on.
Hamas’s ideology thrives under the?current?Israeli attacks, precisely because it was born of, and nurtured on, that very?narrative.?The war?Sinwar?started?has taken?Palestinian?suffering to the next level?– and Netanyahu has played right into it.
None of this means Sinwar will be winning a popular vote in Gaza during his lifetime, however long or short that may be. But the?enormous?bloodshed he precipitated has allowed him to tap into global moral outrage. He is?now?playing the Democratic world against itself,?and?his tools are the very?values?that?developed nations hold sacrosanct: sanctity of life and fair play.
From a position of apparent weakness, he tries to turn every apparent disadvantage to advantage. On the cusp of Israel’s imminent Rafah operation, he tried to stall it by claiming to accept an Egyptian peace deal?that?he said Israel had accepted – with his officials briefing details of the mechanics and timings of how hostage releases would work.
As expected,?the tactic?spun up already febrile Israeli street protest against Netanyahu to a new level. Demonstrators demanded Netanyahu forestall the Rafah operation in favor of a seemingly tantalizingly close hostage release deal.
Who’s calling the shots in Gaza
According to regional diplomats,?many?of Sinwar’s power plays were entirely predictable. Decades of Israeli failure to address Palestinians’ security and economic concerns outside of Israel’s perceived interests set the table for Sinwar’s challenge, and what he could expect to achieve.
Sinwar’s?power?amid the war?seems to be becoming part of the perceived wisdom about Gaza and the war. In Israel on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “I don’t think anyone other than the Hamas leadership in Gaza actually are the ones who can make decisions.”
Even if Sinwar were?inclined?to solicit input from Hamas’s well-heeled leadership cadre sitting in the comfort of Doha,?and?meeting leaders in Iran and Turkey, the likelihood they can bridge the gaps in their thinking?through?detailed discussion is almost nil.?Unfettered communication away from Israel’s prying ears and eyes?is?impossible.
In the final days before Northern Ireland’s momentous 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement between the IRA’s political wing Sinn?Fein and the British government, I watched the group’s top leaders emerge from the talks locked in intense, semi-silent conspiratorial whispers, slowly pacing adjacent gardens.
But such conversations are likely a luxury Sinwar neither has, nor dares risk taking,?from wherever he is hiding in Gaza. And?like any leader convinced he is proving his point, he is unlikely to back down now?unless his key demands are locked in.
His recent warning?that?Israel will have to fight for Rafah strongly suggest he is still in the process of bargaining.
Blinken didn’t mention Sinwar by name in his remarks Tuesday, but there was no need. Everyone in the room understood who he meant when he added, “That is what we are waiting on.”
And if messages of pressure to make a deal are reaching Sinwar he will also understand them for?another part of what they are – an?attempt?to turn Gazans?desperate for an end to the conflict?against him.
As much as Sinwar has put the psychological screws on Israel’s?leadership, he can be made vulnerable too.?And if?past experience is any measure, he will likely gamble?that?he can play mind games better than Netanyahu.