The Taliban’s return has plunged the Middle East into uncharted waters

Afghanistan may not be part of the Middle East but its geopolitical fate has for decades been inextricably linked to that of the nearby region.

In 2001, the fall of the Taliban was the first major milestone in America’s so-called “war on terror” that ultimately transformed both the country and the Middle East. Twenty years later, the group’s return to power in Kabul has thrust the region, still limping from the unspeakable damage of that war, into uncharted waters.

If the US invasion of Afghanistan prompted intensified American intervention in the Middle East, then its exit from the country also signals an accelerated drawdown from a region that has long served as a gravitational center of political tension. The dramatic scenes from Afghanistan have sounded alarm bells throughout the Middle East, raising the specter of a hasty undoing of an economic and political order that has hinged on, or sought to counter, a large US presence in the region.

A flurry of diplomatic and military activity preceded the withdrawal from Afghanistan. A year ago, a wave of normalization agreements between some Arab countries and Israel spurred then-President Donald Trump to say: “We don’t have to be there anymore … we no longer have to be in areas that at one point were vital.”

President Joe Biden has continued down that path. On Tuesday, the US President vigorously defended the pullout and final chaotic scenes in Kabul, adding that the era of invading countries with intentions of installing American values was no longer viable. He argued that the US “no longer had a clear purpose in an open-ended mission in Afghanistan” and that the US’ withdrawal signaled “ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries.”

With a laser focus on China, Biden’s administration has made it crystal clear to US regional allies that they should no longer depend on the US for their security needs. States would need to fend for themselves. For the Middle East, this changes everything.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives at the Future Investment Initiative FII conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh on October 24, 2018.

“The hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the strong return of the Taliban to the Afghan capital and the escalation of the Iranian threat indicate that the Gulf security equation will be very different this century compared to the last,” wrote UAE political commentator Abdulkhaleq Abdulla in an opinion piece for the Abu Dhabi-based The National newspaper.

“The Gulf is on the verge of huge security and military transformations, perhaps the largest since 1971, when the US assumed responsibility for its security and turned it into an ‘American Gulf,’ in a strategic sense,” wrote the Emirati professor, who is believed to be close to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. “It may not be the same during the next five decades.”

The modern Middle East – whose state borders were carved out by Western colonial powers and where US interests in the oil-rich region long served as a centerpiece of regional geopolitics – barely has a notion of what minimal Western presence looks like.

There are two main schools of thought about a post-American Middle East. One says that existing regional axes will become more fortified and more brazen – so Gulf Arabs will continue to coalesce around Israel to counter an Iran axis emboldened by an American exit.

The other theory suggests that the absence of a reliable US military partner will expedite diplomatic efforts between traditional foes to dampen tensions and reduce the need for a robust defensive strategy. Gone are the days when the US would throw its military might into rescuing regional allies, such as in the 1991 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The US military’s inaction after Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries were attacked in a 2019 drone strike blamed on Iran (Tehran denies the charge) spoke volumes about the US’ new regional calculus.

Taliban fighters try to stop the advance of female protesters marching through Kabul, Afghanistan, on Wednesday, September 8. It was a day after the Taliban announced an all-male interim government with no representation for women or ethnic minority groups.

Journalists from the Etilaatroz newspaper — video journalist Nemat Naqdi, left, and video editor Taqi Daryabi — undress to show wounds they sustained after Taliban fighters tortured and beat them while in custody. They had been arrested while reporting on a women's rights protest in Kabul on September 8.

Taliban officials declare victory over the United States from the tarmac of Kabul's international airport on August 31. It was hours after the last American troops left Afghanistan.

US President Joe Biden delivers a speech at the White House on August 31, defending the chaotic withdrawal from Kabul a day after the last American military planes left Afghanistan. The withdrawal concluded the United States' longest war nearly 20 years after it began. "I was not going to extend this forever war, and I was not extending a forever exit," Biden said.

Taliban fighters sit in the cockpit of an Afghan Air Force aircraft that was left behind at the airport in Kabul on August 31.

Heavily armed Taliban fighters are seen at the airport in Kabul on August 31.

Afghan Air Force attack aircraft are pictured amid armored vests inside a hangar at the Kabul airport on August 31. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said the US military had made "unusable all the gear that is at the airport -- all the aircraft, all the ground vehicles."

Taliban fighters storm the Kabul airport on August 31 after the US military completed its withdrawal.

US Army Maj. Gen. Chris Donahue, commanding general of the 82nd Airborne, boards a C-17 military transport plane to depart Kabul on August 31. He was the last US soldier to leave the country.

Celebratory gunfire lights up the sky after the last US aircraft left the Kabul airport.

Taliban fighters bow in prayer on August 31 after they secured the Kabul airport and inspected the equipment that was left behind.

Planes are seen on the tarmac at the Kabul airport late on August 30.

A C-17 military transport plane is a dot in the sky as it leaves Kabul on August 30.

A casket is brought to a grave site at a mass funeral in Kabul on August 30. Ten members of one family — including seven children — were dead after a US drone strike targeted a vehicle in a residential neighborhood of Kabul, a relative of the dead told CNN. The United States carried out what it called a defensive airstrike in Kabul, targeting a suspected ISIS-K suicide bomber who posed an "imminent" threat to the airport, US Central Command said. The Pentagon has said the strike resulted in secondary explosions and that those explosions may have been what killed the civilians.

Samia Ahmadi, right, whose father and fiancé were both dead following the US drone strike, mourns her loved ones on August 30.

A damaged car is seen in Kabul after a US drone strike reportedly targeted a suspected ISIS-K suicide bomber on August 29. US officials believe ISIS-K, the ISIS branch that rivals the Taliban in Afghanistan, was likely behind the August 26 bomb attack that killed 13 US service members and at least 170 others.

US President Joe Biden and other officials watch as flag-draped cases carrying the remains of American service members killed in Afghanistan return to the United States on August 29.

Members of the Badri 313 Battalion, a group of Taliban special forces fighters tasked with securing the area surrounding the Kabul airport, perform evening prayers on August 28.

Women weep at a mosque in Kabul on August 27 as they view the body of Hussein, a victim of the suicide bombing a day earlier.

Ruhullah, 16, mourns during the burial of his father, Hussein, a former police officer who was killed in the attack at the Kabul airport. Ruhullah survived the blast but got separated from his father and did not know he had died until he made his way back to his family a day later.

US President Joe Biden pauses as he listens to a question about the suicide bombing on August 26. He vowed to retaliate for the attack. "We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay," he said.

People who were injured in the August 26 suicide bombing are visited by family members at a hospital in Kabul.

Smoke rises from the explosion outside the airport in Kabul on August 26.

An injured person arrives at a hospital after the suicide bombing outside the airport in Kabul on August 26.

Families who fled Kabul, Afghanistan, wait to board a bus in Chantilly, Virginia, after they arrived at Washington Dulles International Airport on August 25.

This satellite image shows crowds gathered outside a gate to the international airport in Kabul on August 23. Western countries were in a frantic race to complete what US President Joe Biden called "one of the largest, most difficult airlifts in history."

Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban, addresses hundreds of religious leaders who were attending an event held by the Taliban's Preaching and Guidance Commission on August 23.

Boys play in a retention pool in Kabul on August 22, at the tomb of Mohammed Nadir Shah, a former king of Afghanistan.

Amir Saib Zada negotiates with customers at his shop that sells luggage and burqas in Kabul's Lycee Maryam Bazaar on August 22.

People gather outside the airport in Kabul as a military transport plane takes off on August 21.

Families who fled Kabul board a bus in Chantilly, Virginia, after they arrived at Washington Dulles International Airport on August 21.

In this photo released by the US Air Force, an air crew prepares to load evacuees onto a C-17 transport plane at the airport in Kabul on August 21.

Khalil Haqqani, a leader of the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani network and a US-designated terrorist, delivers remarks after Friday prayers at the Pul-e Khishti Mosque in Kabul on August 20. It was the first Friday prayers since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.

A boy sells Taliban flags to put on vehicles in the middle of a Kabul intersection on August 20.

People and vendors gather on the streets of Kabul on August 20.

Despite the presence of Taliban fighters around them, Afghans wave the country's national flag during an Independence Day rally in Kabul on August 19. The Taliban seek to replace the black, red and green Afghan flag with their own white and black flag.

Afghans sit inside a US military aircraft to leave Kabul on August 19. The US Air Force evacuated approximately 3,000 people from Kabul's international airport that day, according to a White House official. Nearly 350 US citizens were among the evacuees, the official said, with the others being family members of US citizens, Special Immigrant Visa applicants and their families, and other vulnerable Afghans. Some civilian charter flights had also departed the Kabul airport in the previous 24 hours.

In this photo released by the Taliban, fighters brandish US assault weapons at an Independence Day parade in Qalat, Afghanistan, on August 19. The Taliban's newfound American arsenal is likely not limited to small arms, as the group captured sizable stockpiles of weapons and vehicles held at strongholds once controlled by US-backed forces.

In this still image taken from a video posted to social media, a baby is handed to American troops over the perimeter wall of the airport in Kabul on August 19. Maj. James Stenger, a spokesman for the Marines, confirmed to The New York Times that the baby received medical treatment and was reunited with their father at the airport.

A heavily armed Taliban fighter guards the Afghanistan central bank in Kabul on August 19.

In this photo released by the White House on August 18, US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are briefed by their national security team on the evolving situation in Afghanistan.

People walk past a half-destroyed poster of former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul on August 18.

A Taliban fighter walks past a beauty salon in Kabul where images of women had been defaced by spray paint. As news broke that the Taliban had captured Kabul, some images of uncovered women were painted over in the Afghan capital. When the Taliban last ruled in Afghanistan, women were barred from public life and only allowed outside when escorted by men and dressed in burqas.

A man carries a bloodied child as a wounded woman lies on the street after Taliban fighters fired guns and lashed out with whips and other objects to control a crowd outside the airport in Kabul on August 17. "The violence was indiscriminate," Los Angeles Times photographer Marcus Yam told CNN. "I even watched one Taliban fighter, after firing some shots in the general direction of the crowd, smiling at another Taliban fighter — as though it were a game to them or something."

A man reacts as he watches Taliban fighters use violence to control a crowd outside the airport on August 17. At least a dozen people were wounded in the incident, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid addresses reporters in Kabul on August 17. "We don't want Afghanistan to be a battlefield," he said. "Today the fighting is over. ... Whoever was against the opposition has been given blanket amnesty." Those promises have been met with skepticism by the international community. It was the Taliban's first news conference since they took control of Kabul.

People climb atop a plane at the airport in Kabul on August 16. Hundreds of people were on the tarmac, trying to find a way out of the country.

Afghans rush to the airport in Kabul as they try to flee the capital on August 16.

A US soldier points a gun while working to secure Kabul's airport on August 16. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved the deployment of 1,000 more American troops into the country due to the deteriorating security situation, a defense official told CNN, upping the number of troops in the country to 6,000.?

Afghans sit on the tarmac as they wait to leave the airport in Kabul on August 16.

Afghans run alongside a US Air Force transport plane on the runway of the Kabul airport on August 16. Video showed people clinging to the fuselage of the aircraft as it taxied.

In this photo released by the US Air Force, an Afghan child sleeps on the floor of an Air Force transport plane during an evacuation flight out of Kabul on August 15.

An Afghan soldier, who didn't want to use his name, is seen at an outpost in Kabul on August 15. He looked at the city below and said, "This is like a quick death," referring to the fall of Kabul. He said it was going to be a hard moment for him when he removes his uniform permanently after 10 years of service.

Taliban fighters sit inside the presidential palace in Kabul on August 15. The palace was handed over to the Taliban after being vacated hours earlier by Afghan government officials.

A Taliban flag is seen on a motorcycle ridden by a Taliban fighter on August 15.

British forces arrive in Kabul on August 15 to assist British nationals in evacuating the city.

A US military helicopter flies above the US Embassy in Kabul on August 15. The embassy was evacuated as Taliban fighters entered the city.

Taliban fighters ride a Humvee near a Kabul roundabout on August 15.

Evacuees crowd the interior of a US Air Force transport plane as they travel from Kabul to Qatar on August 15.

A traffic jam is seen in Kabul on August 15 as some Afghans were looking to flee the city.

US President Joe Biden holds a virtual meeting with senior officials and members of his national security team on August 15. Biden was working from Maryland's Camp David, the presidential retreat where he was vacationing at the time.

Taliban fighters are seen in Kandahar, Afghanistan, on August 14. The Taliban had seized Kandahar, the country's second-largest city, and a number of other provincial capitals. Kandahar, which lies in the south of the country, had been besieged by the Taliban for weeks. Many?observers considered its fall?as the beginning of the end for the country's government.

People wait to cross the Afghan-Pakistani border at Chaman, Pakistan, on August 13. The border crossing was closed for several days before it was reopened.

Displaced Afghans from the country's northern provinces arrive at a makeshift camp in Kabul on August 10. Provincial capitals in the north were among the first to fall to the Taliban.

Shops in Kunduz, Afghanistan, are damaged after fighting between Taliban militants and Afghan military forces on August 8. Kunduz was the first major city to fall to the Taliban since they began their offensive in May.

Hanif, who was struck in the temple by a stray bullet, and his older brother, Mohammed, are seen at the Mirwais Regional Hospital in Kandahar on August 5. Kandahar had been under siege for a month.

An Afghan security officer stands guard at the site of a car bomb explosion in Kabul on August 4. A car bomb exploded near the home of Afghanistan's acting defense minister the day before. In the weeks prior, Kabul had largely been spared from the violence hitting other parts of Afghanistan.

An Afghan woman and her children carry their belongings after fleeing their home in Kandahar on August 4.

An Afghan militia fighter looks out for Taliban insurgents at an outpost in Afghanistan's Balkh Province on July 15.

US Gen. Austin S. Miller, left, greets Gen. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, Afghanistan's defense minister, during a change-of-command ceremony in Kabul on July 12. Miller, the top American general in Afghanistan, was stepping down, a symbolic moment as the United States neared the end of its 20-year-old war in the country.

A member of the Afghan Special Forces drives a Humvee during a combat mission against the Taliban on July 11. Danish Siddiqui, the Reuters photographer who took this photo,?was killed days later during clashes in Afghanistan.?Siddiqui had been a photographer for Reuters since 2010, and he was the news agency's chief photographer in India. He was also part of a Reuters team that won the 2018 Pulitzer Prize for Feature Photography covering Rohingya refugees fleeing Myanmar.

A member of the Afghan Special Forces prays on a highway before a combat mission in Afghanistan's Kandahar province on July 11.

Afghan commandos look out from a window at a home in Kunduz on July 6. The Taliban were moving rapidly to take over districts in northern Afghanistan.

A member of Afghanistan's security forces walks at Bagram Air Base on July 5 after the last American troops?departed the compound.?It marked the end of the American presence at a sprawling compound that became the center of military power in Afghanistan.

Hundreds of armed men attend a gathering on the outskirts of Kabul on June 23 to announce their support for Afghan security forces and say that they are ready to fight against the Taliban.

A helicopter is loaded onto a US Air Force plane as American forces carry out their withdrawal from Afghanistan on June 16.

US President Joe Biden, speaking from the White House Treaty Room on April 14, formally announces his decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan before September 11. "I am now the fourth American president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan. Two Republicans. Two Democrats," Biden said. "I will not pass this responsibility to a fifth."

In pictures: Afghanistan in crisis after Taliban takeover

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Both routes – military polarization and increased diplomacy – are already being trial ballooned. When Israel and the UAE made their covert relationship official last year, they embarked on a whirlwind honeymoon that blindsided most observers. The agreement has seen them cooperate broadly and apparently intensively on technology and, potentially, on security. The UAE, along with other Gulf powerhouses, use Israeli spyware extensively. Despite an Arab outcry about the threat of forced displacement of Palestinians in the east Jerusalem quarter of Sheikh Jarrah earlier this year, those relationships don’t seem to be going anywhere.

Rapprochements are also cropping up in other unexpected quarters. The UAE has been keen not to aggravate Tehran with its forays into an apparent alliance with Israel. In an interview with CNN’s Becky Anderson last year, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the normalization agreement should not be seen as escalation against Iran, but instead perceived as part of a growing trend to stabilize the region. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who once compared Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Adolf Hitler, said earlier this year that he was seeking new relations with Iran.

In his first news conference after becoming Iran’s new president in June, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi returned the gesture, saying that he was keen to reopen embassies in the Saudi and Iranian capitals. The two countries have held several rounds of talks since early 2021 in attempt to ease decades of tensions.

There are also signs of other regional rivalries being tempered. The UAE has held high-level talks with Turkey and Qatar, who it long accused of supporting terrorism. Saudi Arabia has made similar overtures.

Last weekend in Baghdad, a regional summit also appeared to send complicated signals about the future of the region. A meeting between Tehran’s newly minted Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and UAE Prime Minister Mohammed bin Rashid on the sidelines of the event was the most high-level meeting between the two countries in years.

But Amir-Abdollahian has apparently not met with his Saudi counterpart, who was also present at the summit. Instead, he seemed to go out of his way to avoid him. Breaching diplomatic protocol, the Iranian top diplomat stood in a row with country leaders during a group photo. His assigned placement was next to the Saudi top diplomat, alongside other foreign ministers.

Breaching diplomatic protocol, the Iranian top diplomat stood in a row with country leaders during a group photo. His assigned placement was next to the Saudi top diplomat, alongside other foreign ministers.

“When was the last time there was a regional hosted conference? [The Baghdad conference] really shows what’s happening in the region. There was no American there,” Iran expert and editor of Amwaj.Media Mohammad Ali Shabani told CNN. “The empire is gone. It’s gone.”

At breakneck speed, the region has seen local actors trying to fill American shoes. Sometimes this is literal. Images of Taliban fighters kitted up in US military gear inspecting aircraft hangars shocked people around the globe. What an extremist group will do with access to some of the world’s best weaponry is not yet clear. And the wider region is on the edge of its seat as those surreal scenes flash on its screens.

As uncertainty abounds and the Middle East becomes crippled by diminishing resources, Shabani predicts that the region’s many autocrats will double down, and that unrest will worsen.

Already this has manifested in some parts of the Arab world, such as in Tunisia where a sweeping power grab by President Kais Saied last month, ostensibly to weed out corruption and mismanagement, met virtually no popular protest. In crisis-battered Lebanon, which is quickly descending into lawlessness, many on the country’s streets openly call for a military dictatorship.

“We’re going to turn more towards less ideology and more towards good governance,” added Shabani. “What this means is more tolerance of authoritarian rule if it is accompanied by prosperity. But if it’s not accompanied by prosperity then we’re going to see even worse ahead.”