"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-04-19T15:23:32Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/04/19/mask-mandate-removal-airlines-muntean-sot-vpx.cnnbusiness"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="mask mandate removal airlines muntean sot vpx"
data-first-publish-slug="mask mandate removal airlines muntean sot vpx"
data-video-tags="aircraft,aviation and aerospace industry,business and industry sectors,business, economy and trade,centers for disease control and prevention,coronavirus,coronavirus pandemic,diseases and disorders,epidemics and outbreaks,government organizations - us,health and medical,infectious diseases,life forms,microscopic life,public health,public transportation,respiratory diseases,transportation and warehousing,us department of health and human services,us federal departments and agencies,viruses,air transportation,airlines,decisions and rulings,law and legal system,trial and procedure"
data-details="">
Video Ad Feedback
See airline passengers throw away masks as mandate is revoked
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-04-10T18:05:00Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/04/10/white-house-miffed-by-press-corps-covid-coverage.cnn"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="White House miffed by press corps' Covid coverage?"
data-first-publish-slug="White House miffed by press corps' Covid coverage?"
data-video-tags="brian stelter,business and industry sectors,business, economy and trade,companies,coronavirus,coronavirus pandemic,diseases and disorders,epidemics and outbreaks,government and public administration,government bodies and offices,health and medical,infectious diseases,journalism and news media,life forms,media industry,microscopic life,misc people,politics,public health,respiratory diseases,the atlantic,us federal government,viruses,white house"
data-details="">
Video Ad Feedback
White House miffed by press corps' Covid coverage?
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-02-21T20:54:03Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/02/21/fox-neil-cavuto-covid-vaccine.cnn"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="Fox Neil Cavuto covid vaccine"
data-first-publish-slug="Fox Neil Cavuto covid vaccine"
data-video-tags="business and industry sectors,business, economy and trade,communicable disease control,companies,coronavirus,diseases and disorders,electronics,fox corporation,health and medical,health care,health care facilities,hospitals,infectious diseases,intensive care units,levels of care (health),life forms,medical and health care electronics,medical treatments and procedures,microscopic life,public health,respiratory diseases,technology,vaccination and immunization,viruses"
data-details="">
Video Ad Feedback
Fox anchor says the Covid-19 vaccine saved his life
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-02-07T12:04:45Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/02/04/watch-covid-pandemic-house-hgtv-video-orig.cnn-business"
data-branding-key="innovate"
data-video-slug="watch covid pandemic house hgtv video orig"
data-first-publish-slug="watch covid pandemic house hgtv video orig"
data-video-tags="diseases and disorders,health and medical,infectious diseases,companies,epidemics and outbreaks,hgtv,public health"
data-details="">
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-02-04T23:15:07Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/02/04/jobs-report-inflation-economy-brian-deese-national-economic-council-director.cnnbusiness"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="jobs report inflation economy brian deese national economic council director"
data-first-publish-slug="jobs report inflation economy brian deese national economic council director"
data-video-tags="business, economy and trade,economic indicators,economy and economic indicators,employment growth,employment trends,government and public administration,government bodies and offices,labor and employment,labor sector performance,politics,us federal government,white house,government organizations - us,us congress"
data-details="">
Video Ad Feedback
National Economic Council director on how to 'normalize' the economy
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-01-21T12:26:04Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/21/hong-kong-cathay-pacific-zero-covid-lu-stout-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="Hong Kong cathay pacific zero Covid lu stout pkg intl hnk vpx"
data-first-publish-slug="Hong Kong cathay pacific zero Covid lu stout pkg intl hnk vpx"
data-video-tags="air transportation,aircraft pilots,airline employees,airlines,arrests,asia,business and industry sectors,business, economy and trade,cathay pacific,china,communicable disease control,companies,continents and regions,coronavirus,coronavirus pandemic,crime, law enforcement and corrections,criminal law,diseases and disorders,east asia,epidemics and outbreaks,europe,health and medical,hong kong,hotels and motels,infectious diseases,isolation and quarantine,kristie lu stout,labor and employment,law and legal system,law enforcement,life forms,lodging,microscopic life,misc people,northern europe,public health,respiratory diseases,transportation and warehousing,travel and tourism,united kingdom,viruses,workers and professionals"
data-details="">
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-01-14T09:17:09Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/14/hong-kong-zero-covid-supply-chain-lu-stout-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="Hong Kong zero covid supply chain lu stout pkg intl hnk vpx"
data-first-publish-slug="Hong Kong zero covid supply chain lu stout pkg intl hnk vpx"
data-video-tags="asia,border control,china,communicable disease control,continents and regions,coronavirus,coronavirus pandemic,diseases and disorders,east asia,epidemics and outbreaks,health and medical,hong kong,infectious diseases,international relations,international relations and national security,kristie lu stout,life forms,microscopic life,misc people,national security,public health,respiratory diseases,territorial and national borders,viruses"
data-details="">
Video Ad Feedback
Pandemic empties one of the world's busiest airports
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-01-11T12:49:06Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/11/colorado-governor-polis-coronavirus-business-newday-vpx.cnn"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="colorado governor polis coronavirus business newday vpx"
data-first-publish-slug="colorado governor polis coronavirus business newday vpx"
data-video-tags="colorado,continents and regions,north america,southwestern united states,the americas,united states,diseases and disorders,ed lavandera,epidemics and outbreaks,health and medical,infectious diseases,jared polis,misc people,political figures - us,public health"
data-details="">
Video Ad Feedback
Colorado Gov. Polis pushes 'get back to normal' strategy
"
data-check-event-based-preview=""
data-is-vertical-video-embed="false"
data-network-id=""
data-publish-date="2022-01-04T20:46:31Z"
data-video-section="business"
data-canonical-url="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/01/04/nyc-mayor-business-open-shutdown-eric-adams.cnnbusiness"
data-branding-key=""
data-video-slug="nyc mayor business open shutdown eric adams"
data-first-publish-slug="nyc mayor business open shutdown eric adams"
data-video-tags="continents and regions,environment and natural resources,eric adams,landforms and ecosystems,new york (state),new york city,north america,northeastern united states,political figures - us,the americas,united states"
data-details="">
The presidential election is just two days away and the stock market has locked-in its prediction, according to one indicator.
The S&P 500
(SPX) fell 0.04% between July 31 and October 31. That means the market forecasts – by a hair – that Joe Biden will win, according to CFRA Research’s Presidential Predictor.
The stock market has a fairly reliable track record: Since World War II, when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88% of the time.
Similarly, when the S&P 500 rises during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82% of the time.
The stock market had been predicting a Trump victory until Friday, when the S&P 500 tumbled 1.2%. That was just enough to send stocks negative over the past three months, giving the razor-thin edge to Biden.
“This year, the Predictor closed ever so slightly in the red during this three-month period, implying, but not guaranteeing, that Biden will emerge victorious,” said Sam Stoval, CFRA’s chief investment strategist.
Betting on a blue wave
The Presidential Predictor matches Wall Street’s forecasts. Goldman Sachs analysts predict a “blue wave,” in which Democrats will retake the White House and Senate and maintain control of the House of Representatives. Goldman believes that could be a positive outcome for markets.
“Such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report last month.
Goldman Sachs
(GS) wrote that a blue wave would “sharply raise the probability” of a fiscal stimulus package of at least $2 trillion shortly after the January 20 inauguration. The firm also cited Biden’s longer-term spending plans on infrastructure, climate, health care and education.
Taken together, this spending “would at least match the likely longer-term tax increases on corporations and upper-income earnings,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
Similarly, JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas noted in July: “The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slightly positive.”
But Moody’s Analytics found that Biden’s economic proposals, if enacted, would create 7.4 million more jobs than would Trump’s. The economy would return to full employment in the second half of 2022, nearly two years earlier than under Trump’s plan, Moody’s said.
A survey of CEOs conducted by the Yale School of Management in late September found that 77% of participants would vote for Biden. More than 60% predicted he would win. However a UBS survey of 500 business owners and 1,000 investors conducted in mid-October found that 55% of business owners wanted Trump to win, while 51% of investors were backing Biden.
Predicting the outcome
CNN polling shows Biden with a sizable head-to-head nationwide lead as of October 28, and within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory.
No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been a recession in the two years leading up to the election, according to data from RiverFront Investment Group.
The CFRA Presidential Predictor’s only incorrect forecast when the market fell in the three months leading up to an election was in 1956, when incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson despite a 7.7% stock market decline during the Suez Crisis and the Hungarian Uprising.
It’s not clear what, if anything, that outlier could mean for Trump. The market is down over the past three months in large part because of a surge in coronavirus cases. Trump’s handling of the pandemic is largely unpopular, although some could also view the wave of Covid-19 infections as out of his control. Trump still scores relatively high among voters for his economic record despite the recession.