Trump is betting on an economic mirage

Editor’s Note: Christine Romans is chief business correspondent for CNN. The opinions expressed in this commentary are her own.

Imagine you lost $22.2 million in two months. Slowly, you found $9.3 million over the next three months.

To most people, it would be catastrophic: almost a $13 million net loss.

The way President Trump practices math, it’s a record gain.

This is his job market arithmetic: take credit for the gains, ignore the losses and declare records and rebounds.

Monday afternoon in North Carolina he yet again claimed record job market gains.

“There’s never been three months where we’ve put more people to work, over nine million people, and again, we’re just about ready to break the all-time stock market record,” he said.

When it comes to jobs, he is correct on one thing: In May, June and July, over 9 million jobs were created. But don’t be fooled. The sheer size of the jobs crash – 22.2 million in March and April – was so unprecedented, it erased nearly a decade of job market growth. Not even half of those lost jobs have come back.

An employee of Michaels retail store delivers an order to a customer waiting outside in their car on May 18, 2020 in Paramus, New Jersey. New Jersey is allowing non-essential retail stores to reopen for curbside pickup service only. (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

Related article How much longer until the US economy is back to normal? This new index shows we have a long way to go

The coronavirus recession completely distorts all the data. Obviously, the swings on the way back up for the economy will also be huge.

With 70 days until the election, you can expect the president to focus on the direction of the data, not the depths of the crisis, because polling shows his best ratings continue to be on his handling of the economy.

Trump said the economy is bouncing back quickly.

This on the same day the prestigious National Association for Business Economics forecasted a long slog back to normal.

Nearly half the members don’t expect the economy to fully recover until 2022. A majority say the job market won’t be back to its February level until 2022 at the earliest.

The president instead has declared the economy is roaring back. And stock market records this summer provide a much-needed campaign talking point.

Vice President Mike Pence claimed in his RNC appearance, “We were setting records in this economy left and right.”

Stock market records, yes.

But the stock market is not the economy. Roughly half of American households own no stocks. And the wealthiest households hold the vast majority of stock market wealth.

Trump, though, does not appear concerned about seeming out of touch with struggling Americans. He is rebranding the recession as a Trump success. And it just might work. For whatever reason, Trump, especially among Republicans, gets high marks for his stewardship of the economy, even in a pandemic.

This New York Times’ polling tells the story. Eight in 10 Republicans who lost a job during the recession and are still out of work approve of how Trump has handled the pandemic.