England and Scotland went separate ways on Covid-19. It may lead to a full divorce

When British Prime Minister Boris Johnson landed on Thursday in Orkney, an archipelago off Scotland’s northern coast, he boldly proclaimed that the trip proved his commitment to a united nation.

“The Union is a fantastically strong institution – it’s helped our country through thick and thin,” he said. “I think what people really want to do is see our whole country coming back strongly together, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

Together, perhaps, but not with Scotland’s leader. For his first trip to Scotland this year, Johnson chose a sparsely populated group of islands hundreds of miles from the seat of Scottish political power in Edinburgh; he did not meet with Scotland’s top elected official, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

That may be for good reason. Though Scotland has suffered badly from Covid-19, Sturgeon’s popularity has surged, largely as she has steered a more cautious approach out of the pandemic than her English counterparts. Support for Sturgeon’s ultimate political goal, Scottish independence from England, is also on the up.

Johnson’s personal ratings, meanwhile, have taken a hit, as the messaging around reopening south of the Scottish border has been more haphazard. His visit to Scotland was an attempt to regain some political capital north of Hadrian’s Wall.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a crab at Stromness Harbour, Orkney.

Divergent approach

One of the many lessons from the pandemic in the UK has been the starkly different governing styles of the country’s political leaders.

Johnson, despite being educated at England’s most elite establishments, has made a career of playing the klutzy everyman. It’s a routine that works great for photo ops – the infamous zipline mishap during the 2012 Olympics, as London mayor, was a highlight – but perhaps not so well for global pandemics.

LONDON, ENGLAND - JULY 24: Prime minister Boris Johnson wears a face mask as he visits Tollgate Medical Centre in Beckton on July 24, 2020 in London, England. (Photo by Jeremy Selwyn - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

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Long before Johnson himself contracted Covid-19, he told a group of journalists with a mischievous smile that he had recently visited a hospital and “I think there were actually a few coronavirus patients, and I shook hands with everybody, you’ll be pleased to know.”

Johnson faced particular ridicule for confusing advice about reopening. He told Brits on May 10 that if they could not work from home, they should now be “actively encouraged to go to work” but that they should also “stay alert.”

Sturgeon was not impressed. “I don’t know what ‘stay alert’ means,” Sturgeon said at the time, adding that she had asked the British government not to deploy that slogan in Scotland.

When Johnson’s government introduced new rules that allowed residents to visit certain countries without quarantining on return, Sturgeon called the decision-making process “shambolic.” Unlike Downing Street, she refused to allow unrestricted travel from Spain.

Nicola Sturgeon's tartan face mask has become a sartorial statement.

Another area of divergence has been over the issue of face coverings – Sturgeon made them mandatory in shops here a full two weeks before Downing Street followed suit with a similar ordinance for England. Sturgeon’s tartan face mask has become a sartorial signature.

Johnson has not resisted masks with the zeal of US President Donald Trump, but he is more often seen without a face covering, even indoors, than with one. His visit to Orkney drew a small protest; one man heckled, “Where’s your mask, Boris?”

Perception of power

To an outsider (and in fact to many Brits), the division of power in the UK can be confusing. Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, but since the late 1990s, much power has been transferred to the UK’s constituent nations – a process known as devolution.

This means many policy decisions concerning health, education, and transportation for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are taken not in London, but in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. It has not been unusual to see a grand policy announcement emanating from Downing Street, only to find a postscript explaining that the rule only applies to England.

“This is really the most significant time where devolution has been the most obvious to the ordinary citizens,” the pro-independence pollster Mark Diffley said on a typically rainy summer day in Edinburgh.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gives a coronavirus briefing n Edinburgh.

That perception is evident on the streets of Scotland’s capital. “London is too choppy, too changing its mind all the time, can’t make out what it wants to do,” said Karen Miele, 58, from Edinburgh. “Does it want to help people? Does it want to put the economy first? Or does it just not care? Doesn’t know what it’s doing.”

Andrew MacDonald, 21 from Linlithgow, said that his view of Sturgeon has “definitely gone up” over the course of the pandemic. “I think Nicola has done the right thing in trying to keep the politics out of it, and go with the science first and foremost throughout the whole thing,” he said.

Despite this perceived divergence in approach, Covid-19 outcomes – so far, at least – have not been so dissimilar. In fact, the death rate in Scotland has only been slightly better than in England. For every 100,000 people, 77 in Scotland have died and had Covid-19 listed on their death certificate, versus 86 in England.

“There are important differences in the approach, and also important differences in the public perception of the approach,” said Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh.

Boris Johnson waves from the steps of No. 10 Downing Street after giving a statement in London in July 2019. He had just become prime minister.

A 15-year-old Johnson, right, is seen outside Eton College, a boarding school outside London, in 1979.

Johnson, 21, speaks with Greek Minister for Culture Melina Mercouri in June 1986. Johnson at the time was president of the Oxford Union, a prestigious student society.

Johnson started his career as a journalist. He was fired from an early job at The Times for fabricating a quote. He later became a Brussels correspondent and then an assistant editor for The Daily Telegraph. From 1994 to 2005, he was editor of the weekly magazine The Spectator.

In 2001, Johnson was elected as a member of Parliament. He won the seat in Henley for the Conservative Party.

Johnson looks apologetic after fouling Germany's Maurizio Gaudino during a charity soccer match in Reading, England, in May 2006.

Johnson is congratulated by Conservative Party leader David Cameron, right, after being elected mayor of London in May 2008. Cameron later became prime minister.

Johnson, left, poses with a wax figure of himself at Madame Tussauds in London in May 2009.

Johnson poses for a photo in London in April 2011. He was re-elected as the city's mayor in 2012.

Johnson and his wife, Marina, enjoy the atmosphere in London ahead of the Olympic opening ceremony in July 2012. The couple separated in 2018 after 25 years of marriage.

Johnson gets stuck on a zip line during an event in London's Victoria Park in August 2012.

Johnson waves on London's Wandsworth Bridge as a bike-sharing program was expanded in the city in 2013.

Johnson poses with his father, Stanley, and his siblings, Rachel and Jo, at the launch of his new book in October 2014. Stanley Johnson was once a member of the European Parliament.

Johnson takes part in a charity tug-of-war with British military personnel in October 2015.

Johnson and Michael Gove ride on a "Vote Leave" campaign bus in June 2016.

Johnson kisses a wild salmon while visiting a fish market in London in June 2016. A month earlier, he stepped down as mayor but remained a member of Parliament for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Johnson arrives at a news conference in London in June 2016. During the Brexit referendum that year, he was under immense pressure from Prime Minister Cameron to back the Remain campaign. But he broke ranks and backed Brexit at the last minute.

Johnson sits next to Prime Minister Theresa May during a Cabinet meeting in November 2016. Johnson was May's foreign secretary for two years before resigning over her handling of Brexit.

As foreign secretary, Johnson meets with US House Speaker Paul Ryan in April 2017. Johnson was born in New York City to British parents and once held dual citizenship. But he renounced his US citizenship in 2016.

Johnson launches his Conservative Party leadership campaign in June 2019.

Johnson and Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt take part in the Conservative Leadership debate in June 2019.

Johnson speaks in July 2019 after he won the party leadership vote to become Britain's next prime minister.

Britain's Queen Elizabeth II welcomes Johnson at Buckingham Palace, where she invited him to become Prime Minister and form a new government.

Johnson poses with his dog Dilyn as he leaves a polling station in London in December 2019.

Johnson appears on stage alongside Bobby Smith during the count declaration in London in December 2019. Johnson's Conservative Party won a majority in the UK's general election, securing his position as Prime Minister.

Johnson and his partner, Carrie Symonds, react to election results from his study at No. 10 Downing Street.

Johnson speaks on the phone with Queen Elizabeth II in March 2020.

In March 2020, Johnson announced in a video posted to Twitter that he tested positive for the novel coronavirus. "Over the last 24 hours, I have developed mild symptoms and tested positive for coronavirus. I am now self-isolating, but I will continue to lead the government's response via video conference as we fight this virus. Together we will beat this," Johnson said. He was later hospitalized after his symptoms had "worsened," according to his office.

Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak, outside of No. 10 Downing Street, join a national applause showing appreciation for health-care workers during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Johnson is seen via video conference as he attends a Covid-19 meeting remotely in March 2020.

After recovering from the coronavirus, Johnson returned to work in late April 2020.

Johnson and staff members are pictured together with wine at a Downing Street garden in May 2020. In January 2022, Johnson apologized for attending the event, which took place when Britons were prohibited from gathering due to strict coronavirus restrictions.

Johnson wears a face mask as he visits the headquarters of the London Ambulance Service NHS Trust in July 2020.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sits across from Johnson in the garden of No. 10 Downing Street in July 2020.

14/07/2020. London, United Kingdom. Boris Johnson and Carrie NHS Call.The Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds with their son Wilfred in the study of No10 Downing Street speaking via zoom to the midwifes that helped deliver their son at the UCLH.

Johnson holds a crab in Stromness Harbour during a visit to Scotland in July 2020.

Johnson is seen with his wife, Carrie, after their wedding at London's Westminster Cathedral in May 2021. The ceremony, described by PA Media as a "secret wedding," was reportedly held in front of close friends and family, according to several British newspaper accounts.

Johnson and US President Joe Biden speak at Carbis Bay in Cornwall, England, after their bilateral meeting in June 2021. Biden and Johnson were participating in the G7 summit that weekend.

Queen Elizabeth II greets Johnson at Buckingham Palace in June 2021. It was the Queen's first in-person weekly audience with the Prime Minister since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

Johnson delivers his keynote speech on the final day of the annual Conservative Party Conference in October 2021.

Johnson and former British prime ministers attend a requiem Mass for Conservative MP David Amess in November 2021. From left are former Prime Ministers John Major, David Cameron and Theresa May, Speaker of the House of Commons Lindsay Hoyle, Home Secretary Priti Patel and Johnson.

Johnson and his wife, Carrie, holding their newborn daughter, Romy, hold video calls in December 2021.

Johnson speaks in the House of Commons in January 2022. He apologized for attending a May 2020 garden party that took place while the UK was in a hard lockdown to combat the spread of Covid-19. Johnson told lawmakers he believed the gathering to be a work event but that, with hindsight, he should have sent attendees back inside.

Johnson meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Ukraine, in April 2022.

Johnson attends the National Service of Thanksgiving at St Paul's Cathedral in London in June 2022. It was part of Platinum Jubilee celebrations for Queen Elizabeth II.

"I think it's an extremely good, positive, conclusive, decisive result which enables us to move on to unite," Johnson said in an interview shortly after surviving a confidence vote in June 2022.

Johnson leaves No. 10 Downing Street on July 6, a day after two senior Cabinet ministers quit over Downing Street's handling of the resignation of deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.

At Prime Minister's Questions on July 6, Johnson said "the job of a Prime Minister in difficult circumstances when he has been handed a colossal mandate is to keep going, and that's what I'm going to do."

Johnson announces his resignation in front of No. 10 Downing Street on July 7. "It is clearly now the will of the parliamentary Conservative party that there should be a new leader of that party and therefore a new prime minister," he said.

Johnson speaks outside No. 10 Downing Street on September 6. It was his last day as prime minister.

In photos: Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

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Boost for independence

The question for Sturgeon – and the fear for Johnson – is whether this positive regard for her stewardship of the pandemic will transfer into political support for the cause of Scottish independence, which remains the bedrock goal of her Scottish National Party.

The last time Scots formally voted on independence, in 2014, “no” won out by more than 10 percentage points. Much has since changed. In the 2015 UK general election, the SNP went from six seats at the House of Commons in Westminster to 56 – taking all but three Scottish constituencies. Scots voted heavily against Brexit in 2016.

The renowned pollster John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC on Thursday that support for independence has been surging for about and a year, and is now going up even among those Scots who voted for Brexit.

UK coronavirus covid 19 pandemic response boris johnson cummings lockdown robertson pkg intl ldn vpx_00004009.jpg

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The latest polling, Diffley said, “would suggest that support for independence is higher than it has been for actually a really, really long time.”

That’s a problem for Johnson, leader of a party whose full name is the Conservative and Unionist Party. By visiting Scotland, Johnson hoped to underline the benefits to Scots of the 300-year-old union with England – he was keen to point out that it was the Treasury in London that saved thousands of Scottish jobs with its generous furlough scheme, for example.

But Conservative prime ministers have historically enjoyed little support in Scotland, and Sturgeon joked on Twitter that Johnson’s visit didn’t do her any harm.

The SNP had promised a new referendum on independence before next year’s Scottish parliamentary elections. That’s now been put on hold, because of the pandemic.

Tommy Sheppard, an SNP MP for Edinburgh East, thinks independence is a "matter of time."

For SNP members of parliament like Tommy Sheppard, who represents Edinburgh East, it is only a matter of time. “Those who wish to see Scotland become an independent country welcome as many trips as possible by Boris Johnson to Scotland, because every time he sets foot in Scotland, support for independence increases,” he said.

The pandemic response, he believes, has opened many skeptical Scottish eyes to the real differences between Scotland and England.

“They’re aware of that in the way they never were before. And they are perhaps open to the possibility of what an independent Scotland could do if it had the political power to act.”

This story has been updated to correct the death rate in England.

Nic Robertson and Adrian Divirglio contributed reporting