Is New Hampshire about to flip the script for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders?

Editor’s Note: David Axelrod is CNN’s senior political commentator and host of the podcast “The Axe Files.” He was senior adviser to President Barack Obama and chief strategist for the 2008 and 2012 Obama campaigns. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.

We landed in Nashua before dawn, a conquering political army arriving in New Hampshire to negotiate the terms of surrender.

Hours earlier, Barack Obama had won a stunning victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses and the putative nominee, Hillary Clinton, had placed a disappointing third. Now we had a chance for a quick knockout. Two straight wins and the nomination battle effectively would be over.

But even as Obama was triumphantly crisscrossing New Hampshire, the state’s famously contrarian voters were preparing to rewrite the script.

Five days before the primary, Obama was leading Sen. Clinton and a field of other challengers by a gaudy double-digit margin. The Sunday before the Tuesday primary, our own polling showed us ahead by eight.

But on primary day, Hillary was resuscitated by the voters of New Hampshire with a two point upset victory.

The message for campaigns here?

Don’t take anything for granted in the Granite State.

In those final days before New Hampshire voted in 2008, Clinton and Obama suddenly swapped places in the minds of the state’s voters. After a year as David taking on Clinton’s Goliath, Obama was now abruptly transformed into the behemoth by the voters of Iowa.

And after a year spent cautiously posed atop the frontrunner’s pedestal, Hillary Clinton became the plucky challenger, fighting against the conventional wisdom that Obama was now the certain nominee.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks as he kicks off his 2020 presidential campaign at Navy Pier in Chicago, Sunday, March 3, 2019. Over the next several weeks, Sanders will travel to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and California. He will then return to Burlington, Vt., for the official launch of his campaign. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Clinton proved a more compelling underdog than frontrunner, campaigning with heart and conviction, and achieving a connection to people that she had lacked before. Her struggle became their struggle.

The upstart Obama may have had apparent advantages, but New Hampshire voters gave him his comeuppance … and Clinton new life. They simply weren’t ready to proclaim the young phenom, just three years removed from the Illinois state senate, the de facto nominee of the Democratic Party.

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Five days before this year’s first-in-the-nation primary, the scene in New Hampshire is very different. Clinton is Goliath – once again the presumptive nominee – and a heavy underdog in New Hampshire.

Having squeaked by Sen. Bernie Sanders in Iowa, and with big leads in the polls in the more diverse states that follow, she does not need a win here and probably won’t get one.

The widely held belief that she will be the nominee may work against her in New Hampshire, just as it did Obama eight years ago.

For those who admire his progressive purity and populist thunder, a vote for Sanders carries little risk. They figure they can send a message now, and vote for Clinton later. But if Sanders were to be upset here, which few expect, his future as a genuine challenger for the nomination would be badly damaged. For all intents and purposes, the race would be over.

MARION, IA - AUGUST 16: Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) greets supporters while he campaigns on August 16, 2015 in Marion, Iowa. Sanders has a full day of campaigning scheduled in eastern Iowa today. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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Voters here are accustomed to playing the role of referee, deciding the candidates who will go on and relegating others to the sidelines.

Given lingering questions about Clinton’s sometimes prosaic style on the stump and the assorted baggage she’s accrued, they likely aren’t ready to end the fight.

New Hampshire also is a vastly different battleground than Iowa.

Because undeclared or independent voters – the largest single bloc at about 44 % – can participate in either party’s primary, they have a disproportionate influence over the result. So candidates are not only contending with their primary opponents for party loyalists, but also with candidates in the other party for the support of these free agent “undeclared” voters.

Hillary Clinton accepts the Democratic Party's nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia on July 28, 2016. The former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state was the first woman to lead the presidential ticket of a major political party.

Before marrying Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here she attends Wellesley College in Massachusetts. Her commencement speech at Wellesley's graduation ceremony in 1969 attracted national attention. After graduating, she attended Yale Law School.

Rodham was a lawyer on the House Judiciary Committee, whose work led to impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in 1974.

In 1975, Rodham married Bill Clinton, whom she met at Yale Law School. He became the governor of Arkansas in 1978. In 1980, the couple had a daughter, Chelsea.

Arkansas' first lady, now using the name Hillary Rodham Clinton, wears her inaugural ball gown in 1985.

The Clintons celebrate Bill's inauguration in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1991. He was governor from 1983 to 1992, when he was elected President.

Bill Clinton comforts his wife on the set of "60 Minutes" after a stage light broke loose from the ceiling and knocked her down in January 1992.

In June 1992, Clinton uses a sewing machine designed to eliminate back and wrist strain. She had just given a speech at a convention of the International Ladies' Garment Workers Union.

During the 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton jokes with her husband's running mate, Al Gore, and Gore's wife, Tipper, aboard a campaign bus.

Clinton accompanies her husband as he takes the oath of office in January 1993.

The Clintons share a laugh on Capitol Hill in 1993.

Clinton unveils the renovated Blue Room of the White House in 1995.

Clinton waves to the media in January 1996 as she arrives for an appearance before a grand jury in Washington. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas. The Clintons' business investment was investigated, but ultimately they were cleared of any wrongdoing.

The Clintons hug as Bill is sworn in for a second term as President.

The first lady holds up a Grammy Award, which she won for her audiobook "It Takes a Village" in 1997.

The Clintons dance on a beach in the U.S. Virgin Islands in January 1998. Later that month, Bill Clinton was accused of having a sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

Clinton looks on as her husband discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998. Clinton declared, "I did not have sexual relations with that woman." In August of that year, Clinton testified before a grand jury and admitted to having "inappropriate intimate contact" with Lewinsky, but he said it did not constitute sexual relations because they had not had intercourse. He was impeached in December on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.

The first family walks with their dog, Buddy, as they leave the White House for a vacation in August 1998.

President Clinton makes a statement at the White House in December 1998, thanking members of Congress who voted against his impeachment. The Senate trial ended with an acquittal in February 1999.

Clinton announces in February 2000 that she will seek the U.S. Senate seat in New York. She was elected later that year.

Clinton makes her first appearance on the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee.

Sen. Clinton comforts Maren Sarkarat, a woman who lost her husband in the September 11 terrorist attacks, during a ground-zero memorial in October 2001.

Clinton holds up her book "Living History" before a signing in Auburn Hills, Michigan, in 2003.

Clinton and another presidential hopeful, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, applaud at the start of a Democratic debate in 2007.

Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a rally in Unity, New Hampshire, in June 2008. She had recently ended her presidential campaign and endorsed Obama.

Obama is flanked by Clinton and Vice President-elect Joe Biden at a news conference in Chicago in December 2008. He had designated Clinton to be his secretary of state.

Clinton, as secretary of state, greets Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a meeting just outside Moscow in March 2010.

The Clintons pose on the day of Chelsea's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky in July 2010.

In this photo provided by the White House, Obama, Clinton, Biden and other members of the national security team receive an update on the mission against Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

Clinton checks her Blackberry inside a military plane after leaving Malta in October 2011. In 2015, The New York Times reported that Clinton exclusively used a personal email account during her time as secretary of state. The account, fed through its own server, raises security and preservation concerns. Clinton later said she used a private domain out of "convenience," but admits in retrospect "it would have been better" to use multiple emails.

Clinton arrives for a group photo before a forum with the Gulf Cooperation Council in March 2012. The forum was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Obama and Clinton bow during the transfer-of-remains ceremony marking the return of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who were killed in Benghazi, Libya, in September 2012.

Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at a recycling trade conference in Las Vegas in 2014.

Clinton, now running for President again, performs with Jimmy Fallon during a "Tonight Show" skit in September 2015.

Clinton testifies about the Benghazi attack during a House committee meeting in October 2015. "I would imagine I have thought more about what happened than all of you put together," she said during the 11-hour hearing. "I have lost more sleep than all of you put together. I have been wracking my brain about what more could have been done or should have been done." Months earlier, Clinton had acknowledged a "systemic breakdown" as cited by an Accountability Review Board, and she said that her department was taking additional steps to increase security at U.S. diplomatic facilities.

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders shares a lighthearted moment with Clinton during a Democratic presidential debate in October 2015. It came after Sanders gave his take on the Clinton email scandal. "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails," Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing the United States of America."

Clinton is reflected in a teleprompter during a campaign rally in Alexandria, Virginia, in October 2015.

Clinton walks on her stage with her family after winning the New York primary in April.

After Clinton became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, this photo was posted to her official Twitter account. "To every little girl who dreams big: Yes, you can be anything you want -- even president," Clinton said. "Tonight is for you."

Obama hugs Clinton after he gave a speech at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The president said Clinton was ready to be commander in chief. "For four years, I had a front-row seat to her intelligence, her judgment and her discipline," he said, referring to her stint as his secretary of state.

Clinton arrives at a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York on September 11. Clinton, who was diagnosed with pneumonia two days before, left early after feeling ill. A video appeared to show her stumble as Secret Service agents helped her into a van.

Clinton addresses a campaign rally in Cleveland on November 6, two days before Election Day. She went on to lose Ohio -- and the election -- to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.

After conceding the presidency to Trump in a phone call earlier, Clinton addresses supporters and campaign workers in New York on Wednesday, November 9. Her defeat marked a stunning end to a campaign that appeared poised to make her the first woman elected US president.

Hillary Clinton's life in the spotlight

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In 2000, a wave of undeclared voters migrated to the Republican primary to help John McCain defeat George W. Bush. This undercut the insurgent Democratic campaign of Bill Bradley, who was counting on these independent voters to help him sink frontrunner Al Gore. While McCain buried Bush by 18 points, Gore narrowly defeated Bradley, defusing a challenge that would soon fade away.

Sanders is not only appealing to independents, he has been one for his entire political career. Though he sits with the Democrats in the Congress, this is the first time that he has sought the Democratic nomination for any office.

In Iowa, Sanders defeated Clinton among the self-identified independents who signed up for the Democratic caucuses, winning over 70%. And New Hampshire polling suggests he is doing almost as well with undeclared voters here.

But what we don’t know is where the nomadic “undeclareds”– especially those who have a history of party switching from election to election – will land in a year when the reality show that is the Republican race has garnered so much attention.

If these voters believe, as the polls suggest, that Sanders is a sure winner, many may head over to the GOP, where Donald Trump has an appeal to independents, and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has quietly, but relentlessly worked them. This could narrow Sanders’ margin.

But the senator from Vermont has a significant lead and should win here Tuesday, despite – and maybe because of – the heavy presumption in Hillary Clinton’s favor.

As some of us learned in 2008, New Hampshire likes to write its own story.

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